According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, consumer spending has seen some interesting trends over the first half of 2021. May was flat, April was at 0.9 percent, March was 5.0 percent, and February was at 1.0 percent. With varied consumer spending statistics as the nation comes out of the pandemic, it’s important for businesses to get demand forecasting as accurate as possible.

According to The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, demand forecasting is “a method for predicting future demand for a product.” It’s a calculated method to plan for inventory and helps prepare the supply chain for the future.

Demand forecasting helps businesses forecast their future sales, which is based primarily on historical data. However, relying exclusively on historical data is not generally recommended.

Historical data provides an incomplete picture because it does not factor in economic trends, seasonal ordering, or consumer behaviors. Multiple analyses are also recommended because young companies don’t have enough of their own data to perform such analyses.

It’s recommended to run through more than one method to forecast sales. It’s important to ensure that data is as accurate as possible and to consider factors beyond inventory. Such factors include how external players – shippers, material suppliers, etc. – will work with the company’s internal functioning.

It’s important to be mindful of the time frame of the different analyses. Short-term refers to the next quarter to four quarters (3 to 12 months) and helps businesses adapt to changes in consumer demand and market variations. Real-time sales data is used to manage just enough inventory. Long-term refers to at least 12 to 24 months, but sometimes 36-48 months, and is used for things related to the long-term business vision. Examples include creating a more reliable supply chain, capital expenditures, advertising campaigns, etc.

Similarly, demand forecasts run by a business can be done regarding intrinsic or extrinsic factors. External forecasts evaluate how the broader economy and systemic changes in commerce shifts future demand. Recommended indicators include exploring how many retail consumers spend, what they are interested in, and whether the economy is expanding or contracting. Internal demand forecasts look at the organization’s employee makeup and where and how the business can divert resources to help deal with additional capacity, if necessary.

Passive demand forecasting relies exclusively on historical data and is usually geared toward established companies with generally reliable sales histories.

Active demand forecasting is geared more toward startup businesses looking to scale and diversify their portfolio. It can be variable because it factors in changing trends of the fluid economy and how companies, especially startups, plan to accelerate growth. However, active demand forecasting also may be useful in order for businesses to work around fluid inventory and logistic network overview. Startup businesses are better geared for real-time demand planning, mainly due to a lack of historical data. 

With the quantitative approach focusing on crunching data, oftentimes with complex “big data” processes, the qualitative method takes a more balanced approach with some data, but also cognitive-based analyses, including some of the following tactics:

1.  The salesforce approach gleans data from the sales staff to predict demand. Those doing sales are in direct contact with the company’s customer base; therefore, they can get info on customer needs and behavior and even report back on what the competition is doing.
2. Market research looks at present market trends and sees where businesses can meet newly created consumer demand. Startups benefit because they have little or no historical data.
3. The Delphi Method works by hiring an outside group of experts and asking them a series of relevant questions. From there, each expert creates a demand forecast based on their market knowledge. Then, the individual forecasts are shared among the experts anonymously. From there, experts are asked again to come up with a forecast; this is repeated until there is far greater consensus among all the experts.

While demand forecasting is individual to each company and each industry, the more businesses that understand the approach to demand forecasting, the more able they’ll be to react to any type of consumer trend.

Sources

https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main

https://supplychainmanagement.utk.edu/blog/guide-to-forecasting-demand/

According to a Prudential survey, 87 percent of respondents said they would prefer to work remotely at least one day per week. This is compared to 13 percent of respondents preferring to work at the office all the time. The same survey found that one-third of respondents wouldn’t want to work for a business that had a 100 percent on-site work policy.

According to a report from Microsoft titled, “The Next Great Disruption is Hybrid Work – Are We Ready?” 54 percent of employees report “feeling overworked” while 39 percent say they “feel exhausted.” The study attributes these employee feelings to an overload of “digital collaboration” through “remote meetings, emails, chats, and groups working on documents together.” With workers reporting a desire for change in the workplace, how can companies develop their own hybrid work policy?

Crafting an Effective Hybrid Work Policy

By developing the right mix of remote work and office work, employees and employers can find a balance that works well for everyone. Looking to Fujitsu, as Harvard Business Review (HBR) explains, we can study a model of how the pandemic changed everyone’s view – including owners, managers and workers – of working in the office all the time.

Hiroki Hiramatsu, head of the human resources unit at Fujitsu, realized that the 120 minutes people spent traveling to work could be put to better use. There was a better mousetrap to be devised to make both the business and its workers more efficient with a hybrid workplace plan. For businesses that want to create more flexible working arrangements, HBR believes there are four areas of focus:

1. Employee’s Position and Responsibilities

The first task is to examine the employee’s position and list of responsibilities. HBR looks at the job of a strategic planner and hones in on the attribute of focus. They are responsible for creating business plans and obtaining details on their industry. Requiring intense focus, they need time that is not interrupted; hence, this can be performed virtually anywhere.

Looking at the team manager, being able to coordinate things is imperative. Team managers are more efficient and effective in person to provide guidance and job-improving feedback while in the office working on projects.

While there’s no cut-and-dry call on where both of the scenarios could be done, with a hybrid work policy, certain tasks can be done anywhere, while other tasks are more effectively completed at home or at the office. A hybrid work policy merges the benefits for businesses and their employees.

2. Worker Inclinations

HBR explains that it’s imperative to understand individual worker preferences and aid teams to work within such preferences. Using the example of two strategic planners, there are different employees with different work and family lives. One lives far away from the office, has a busy family life with kids in school and prefers a hybrid work approach. The other employee is at an earlier stage in their career, doesn’t have a dedicated home workspace and lives near the office.

This stage is where companies can speak with employees and have them take surveys to see how a hybrid workplace policy can be constructed for optimal employee engagement.

3. Reworking How Work is Done

When it comes to working outside the office, HBR explains that in a hybrid work environment, businesses have to get creative, especially with technology. HBR uses the example of the Norwegian Equinor corporation that is involved in handling gas from North Sea fields. In place of normal operations for plant inspections, robotic devices were supplied to provide real-time visual data for inspection engineers to complete their jobs remotely with the same level of accuracy.

4. Equal Policy Application

Regardless of the hybrid policy that’s developed, it’s important to maintain inclusion and fairness. HBR points out that without applying the policy evenly, it can lead to less productive workers, higher rates of burnout, fewer instances of teamwork, and more turnover. Additionally, with select employees having time- and place-dependent jobs unsuited or not optimized for a hybrid workplace, many felt they were treated unfairly when this approach is taken.

HBR gives the example of how Brit Insurance changed the traditional approach to the uneven application of a hybrid work policy. One out of 10 of its employees were chosen randomly, from all departments and job roles. Over the next six months, these employees were put in six-person groups to work together virtually. After reflecting on their working styles and capabilities, and their coworkers’ and company’s needs, they concluded that by developing ideas based on their experience and sharing them with the CEO, change would occur. The project resulted in the Brit Playbook, documenting novel ideas for employees to work together.

While each business is unique and will have its own tailored hybrid plan, taking the time to learn how to develop it effectively it will help reduce problems in implementing it.

Sources

https://news.prudential.com/presskits/pulse-american-worker-survey-is-this-working.htm

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/worklab/work-trend-index/hybrid-work

https://hbr.org/2021/05/how-to-do-hybrid-right